Reuters calculations indicate that Russia’s oil and gas revenue is projected to decline by 36% in November 2024 compared to October 2024, reaching 0.78 trillion rubles. This decrease comes despite an anticipated 52% surge in October’s revenue, driven by quarterly oil profit-based tax payments. The November decline is attributed to several factors, including a drop in oil prices, a stronger ruble, and the elimination of refinery subsidies. Despite these fluctuations, Russia’s oil and gas revenue for the first ten months of 2024 is expected to show a 32% year-on-year increase, reaching 9.5 trillion rubles.
Key Insights:
- Focus: The primary focus is on the volatility of Russia’s oil and gas revenue, highlighting the influence of global energy prices, currency fluctuations, and domestic policies.
- Key Events:
- A significant decline in November’s revenue following a substantial increase in October.
- The impact of quarterly tax payments on revenue fluctuations.
- Changes in oil prices, ruble strength, and refinery subsidies affecting revenue.
- Potential Impact:
- This volatility can affect Russia’s budget stability, especially given the importance of oil and gas revenue for government spending.
- It may also influence Russia’s approach to oil production and export policies.
Investment Implications:
- Energy Market: Investors in the energy sector should closely monitor fluctuations in global oil prices and their impact on oil-producing countries like Russia.
- Currency Market: The ruble’s strength can influence the profitability of Russian oil exports and impact investment decisions.
- Geopolitical Risks: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and related sanctions continue to pose risks to Russia’s economy and its energy sector, which investors should consider.
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